Who will win the Ballon d'Or 2026? Harry Kane is the clear favourite ahead of Lamine Yamal
The 2026 Ballon d'Or is awarded in London on Monday 26 October. Prediction markets make Harry Kane a two-in-three favourite, with Lamine Yamal his only serious rival. Here is the case for each contender, and when to watch.
The 70th Ballon d'Or will be awarded on Monday 26 October 2026 at the London Palladium — the first ceremony ever held outside Paris. Four days before, the race looks like a two-man contest, and one man is well ahead.
The favourite: Harry Kane
On the Kalshi prediction market on 19 October, Harry Kane was priced at 66% to win, with Lamine Yamal at 28% and nobody else above 5%.
| Player | Club / country | Kalshi win price (19 Oct) |
|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | Bayern Munich / England | 66% |
| Lamine Yamal | Barcelona / Spain | 28% |
| Kylian Mbappé | Real Madrid / France | 5% |
| Lionel Messi | Inter Miami / Argentina | 4% |
Market prices are a guide to expectations, not a result.
The case for each contender
Harry Kane
Kane scored 61 club goals for Bayern Munich in 2025-26 and six more at the World Cup, where England reached the semi-finals before losing to Argentina. He has never won a major trophy with England, but no player in Europe matched his scoring over the season, and the award has been judged on the previous season — not the calendar year — since 2024.
Lamine Yamal
Yamal, 19, had 24 goals and 18 assists in all competitions, won a second straight La Liga title with Barcelona, and then won the World Cup with Spain, scoring once and setting up another. He has already won the Kopa Trophy for the best young player twice. If voters weigh the World Cup most heavily, he is the strongest candidate.
Kylian Mbappé
Mbappé won the World Cup Golden Boot with 10 goals and scored 42 for Real Madrid. But Madrid finished the season without a trophy and France came fourth, which has hurt his chances.
The rest of the field
- Lionel Messi scored eight World Cup goals at 39 as Argentina reached the final.
- Rodri won the World Cup Golden Ball as Spain conceded just one goal all tournament.
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia scored 19 goals and won a second Champions League with PSG — though he has just ruptured his ACL.
- Michael Olise was the World Cup's leading provider with seven assists after 22 goals and 31 assists for Bayern.
What about the holder?
Ousmane Dembélé won in 2025 and is on the 30-man shortlist again, but is not among the favourites. He has said publicly that his PSG team-mate Kvaratskhelia was the club's best hope.
The other awards
The ceremony also includes the Women's Ballon d'Or, the Kopa Trophy (best player under 21), the Yashin Trophy (best goalkeeper), the Gerd Müller Trophy (top scorer) and coach of the year awards. Aitana Bonmatí has won the women's award for the last three years.
When and how to watch
| Where | Time |
|---|---|
| UK (GMT) | Monday 26 October, about 20:00 |
| Central Europe (CET) | Monday 26 October, 21:00 |
| Beijing | Tuesday 27 October, about 04:00 |
For the full history, see our list of every Ballon d'Or winner and the players with the most Ballon d'Ors. Our earlier nominees guide covers the full shortlist.
FAQ
When is the Ballon d'Or 2026? Monday 26 October 2026 at the London Palladium, from 21:00 CET (20:00 UK).
Who is the favourite to win the Ballon d'Or 2026? Harry Kane, priced at about 66% on prediction markets four days before the ceremony.
Who won the Ballon d'Or in 2025? Ousmane Dembélé of Paris Saint-Germain.
